Philip Stone's latest NielsenIQ BookData article paints a measured picture of the UK book market.
Print book sales are forecast to decline by around 2% this year, while market value is expected to increase by approximately 1%, largely because book prices continue to rise. It is neither a story of boom nor bust. Rather, it reflects an industry that has proven remarkably resilient during difficult economic times.
There is plenty in those figures for publishers, booksellers and authors to reflect upon.
But as I read the article, I found myself asking a different question. Are we measuring the right thing? The figures tell us what is happening. They don't necessarily tell us why. Nor do they answer what I believe is the most important question facing our industry. Are we creating enough new readers?
After 27 years as a bookseller and 18 years as a literary agent, I've never been more convinced that this is the challenge which will define publishing over the next decade. Not because people have stopped buying books, and not because publishers have stopped publishing great stories. I believe creating readers has become significantly harder.
One statistic in Philip Stone's presentation particularly stood out to me. Readers are most likely to discover books by returning to authors or series they already know, followed by recommendations from friends and family, and browsing physical bookshops. That should encourage us.
Despite everything that has changed over the past twenty years, readers still want to browse. They still value recommendations. They still enjoy the serendipity of discovering a book they weren't looking for. For me, that reinforces something I have believed throughout my career. Independent bookshops don't simply sell books. They create readers.
Every bookseller knows the conversation.
"I know you came in looking for the new Richard Osman, but have you tried this debut?" Those conversations happen thousands of times every week in independent bookshops across the country. They introduce readers to authors they would never have discovered through an algorithm or a bestseller chart.
If browsing remains one of the most important ways readers discover books, shouldn't we be asking whether we're investing enough in the places where that discovery happens?
Publishers rightly invest in digital marketing, online campaigns, retailer promotions and social media. Those things matter enormously. But perhaps we also need to think more creatively about supporting the independent bookshops that continue to introduce readers to new authors every single day. Discovery doesn't happen by accident. It happens because someone cared enough to recommend a book.
As an agent, I also find myself asking another question. Have we become better at selling books to existing readers than we have at creating entirely new ones?
Beautiful editions, collector's copies, subscriptions and exclusive formats have all enriched the reading experience. I know that better than most, and I've been proud to play a part in that evolution. But commercial success and cultural growth are not always the same thing. Selling one reader three editions of the same novel is wonderful for business. Helping three people discover reading for the first time changes the future of our industry. That distinction matters.
This year, I've spoken and written a great deal about Go All In. Some people understandably assume it's a campaign encouraging people to buy more books. It isn't. It's about encouraging people to put books back at the centre of their lives. To read more. To visit bookshops. To introduce children to stories. To recommend books to friends. To join book clubs. To attend book festivals. To make reading something we celebrate rather than simply consume.
Because I don't believe the greatest challenge facing publishing is selling books.
I believe it's creating readers.
Without new readers there are no future collectors.
Without new readers there are no future book clubs.
Without new readers there are no future book festivals.
Without new readers there are no future bestselling authors.
And without new readers, there is no long-term future for publishing itself.
Philip Stone's figures tell us where the market is today.
The question for all of us is where we want it to be ten years from now.
We can continue measuring revenue, prices and unit sales. Of course they matter.
But perhaps the statistic that should matter most is one we rarely talk about.
How many people fell in love with reading this year who weren't readers last year?
Because perhaps that is the measure by which the long-term health of our industry should really be judged.
